Monday, March 19, 2012
Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best (Plume), by Dan Gardner
Crackpot evangelists and doomsday cultists aren't the only false prophets. According to Future Babble, few professions are as consistently wrong in their predictions as the economists of our world, whose propensity for error is almost as staggering as the public's willingness to believe them. Gleeful cynicism sets the tone for much of Future Babble, yet the author makes serious points worth considering, especially: Much can be learned by training the mind to be skeptical of expert opinion, whether it originates from left or right on the political spectrum or from the mouths of optimists or pessimists. The twists and turns of reality are too complicated and involve too many variables for even the most brilliant prognosticator.