WhoRaised What
Two of thethree candidates for U.S. Senate seem to be flush with cash. Incumbent Feingoldraised $1.4 million and has $4.3 million cash on hand. He doesn’t have aprimary opponent this year. His likely Republican rival, businessman Johnson,has raised $557,774 since May 10, when he filed papers to form a campaigncommittee. Johnson also loaned his campaign just under $1.5 million, and has$940,000 cash on hand as of the filing deadline. Johnson, according to hisfinancial disclosure statement, is worth between $10 million and $38 million,and has said he’s willing to spend $10 million to $15 million on his campaign.Tea party activist Westlakereportedly has raised less than $20,000, and has roughly $2,000 on hand.
Thegovernor’s race has also attracted a ton of money. Walker raised $2.5 million this quarter and hehas $2.5 million on hand. Neumann raised $2.8 million$2.5 million of which isa personal loanand has $1.05 million left in the bank. Democrat Barrett raised$2.4 million and has $2.9 million left to spend. He faces a primary challengefrom Tim John, who has raised $52,408 and has just over $10,000 on hand as ofthis month.
WhatAre the Limits?
Federalcandidates and state candidates must play by different fund-raising andspending rules. Donors to federal candidates can give up to $4,800 percandidate, though candidates can only spend $2,400 of that on the primary and$2,400 on the general electiona candidate must win the primary to get to spendthe entire $4,800. So while Westlakeis running a smaller, grassroots campaign, he’s still posing a primarychallenge that will force Johnson to spend more money during the primaryseason. Since Johnson is viewed as the odds-on favorite against a candidate whohas virtually no money, Johnson can’t just win; he has to win bigearning atleast 75% of the vote. Feingold, in contrast, doesn’t have a primary opponent.He still has to stay under the $4,800 cap, but he doesn’t need to spend muchmoney during the primary portion of the long campaign season.
Statecandidates, on the other hand, play by different rules. Individual donors cancontribute up to $10,000 per year to state candidates. They can spend it all onone candidate, or they can spend it on multiple candidates so long as theydon’t go over the $10,000 cap. Walkerhas nine individual contributors who maxed out, Neumann has four, and Barretthas more than 20 donors who have contributed $10,000. That seems to indicatethat Republicans are less willing to place all of their chips on one candidate,while Democrats are betting the house on Barrett. Since there are a limitednumber of people in either party who make big contributions, a contestedgovernor’s race can hinder the fund-raising efforts of candidates running forsmaller offices by taking up most of the available money.
In addition,other candidates or even former candidates can spend on campaigns, too. Gov.Jim Doyle still has $1.8 million in his war chest, while the 2006 GOPgubernatorial candidate, Mark Green, has $172,518 on hand. They can pretty muchdo as they please with this money, subject to some contribution limits.Democratic candidates will likely look to Doyle for contributions within thoselimits. However, the outgoing governor can also take out his own issue ads, forwhich there are no spending limits.
BurningThrough Cash
It’s nowonder why the Republican elites are trying to push Neumann off the ballot forgovernor: He’s forcing Walkerto burn through his cash. While Walker’s$2.5 million of contributions seems like a big haul, he’s spent almost thatmuch this quartermore than $2 million.
So what’s hespending it on?
Consultants,fund-raising and lots of media. Walker’smedia buyer is Nonbox, run by heavyweight conservative Republican consultantBill Eisner, who, incidentally, was on Neumann’s team when the then-congressmanran against Feingold in 1998. Eisner, who is very capable, has a strong workingrelationship with R.J. Johnson of Walker’scampaign. Because of this, and since Neumann was late getting into the race,Eisner is now working against his former client.
While Walker isn’t running any TV ads in Milwaukee at the moment, he’s spent $523,156on TV ads around the state this quarter. Nonbox has also spent a whopping$128,459 on newspaper ads and $32,827 on radio ads. MSA of New Berlin earned$63,000 for printing brochures and SCM Associates of New Hampshire raked in$280,000 for mailing services. FLS Connect of St. Paul, Minn., received$185,411 in solicitation expenses. FLS is a notorious GOP-supporting outfitknown for some pretty nasty campaign tacticsvoters may remember the McCaincampaign robocalls that linked Barack Obama to ’60s radical William Ayers. FLSmade those calls.
Neumannisn’t afraid to spend cash, either. He’s spent an eye-popping $925,633 on TVads this quarter, $2,400 on radio and $700 on newspaper ads. It’s no wonder whyhe’s in striking distance of Walker, despite Walker’s coronation bythe state Republican Party. Furthermore, Neumann has a good Republicanprofilea successful, self-made businessmanwhile Walker has spent virtually his entire careeron the public payroll. Since Neumann has a largely self-funded campaign, he’slikely to keep buying ads to make his case. One consultant told the Shepherd that if Walker wins the primary, he might be draineddry of cash when the general election against Barrett begins in mid-September.Surely, though, national Republican organizations and conservative specialinterest groups will come to the rescue with attack ads, so Walker is probably not too worried aboutspending everything to win the primary.
Barrett, bythe way, has spent $444,859 on TV adsnot really necessary in Milwaukee, of course.
But all ofthat pales in comparison with Senate candidate Ron Johnson’s TV buys. The Oshkosh businessmandeclared his candidacy in mid-May and within a month spent $802,301 on adssaturating each media market in the state. A very reliable source said thatnumber has now climbed to just shy of $2 million total, which includes a big adbuy he made this week. Looks like those Great Lakesads are here to stayand that he’s got the Sarah Palin playbook down pat byrelying on paid media.
This quarter, Feingold paid $65,012 to Eichenbaumand Associates for TV commercial production and consulting, and bought $319,435worth of ad time, according to his latest campaign finance disclosure report.
Johnson’sInstant Campaign
A few wordsabout Ron Johnson’s campaign: It came together in an instant. Johnson, who hasnever run for political office and had made two political speeches in hislifeat tea party ralliesannounced his candidacy in mid-May. He startedaccruing expenses on April 15a Delta Air Lines flight “to Milwaukee” for $548. Immediately thereafter,payments to Mark Stephens, a North Carolina-based consultant, started poppingup. Stephens has quite a track record in Republican circles and he’s not afraidto get down in the mud during campaigns. Way back in 1990, Stephens helpedthen-Sen. Jesse Helms eke out a victory, thanks in part to a highly condemnedrace-baiting ad that showed a white man’s hands rip up a rejection noticebecause a “less qualified minority” got the job instead. More recently,Stephens helped to craft a much-denounced ad for then-Sen. Elizabeth Dole, running for re-election in2008. The ad showed Dole’s opponent, Kay Hagan, with a voice-over yelling“There is no God!” and implying that Hagan was an atheist and has the supportof the “godless community.” Hagan beat Dole 53%-44% in that election, showingthat below-the-belt attack ads can backfire on the instigator.
Johnson isalso racking up support among the national Republican elite. He’s received$30,000 from the political action committees run by the Senate Republicanleadership of Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl, TennesseeSen. Lamar Alexander, and Texas Sen. John Cornyn. Those committees are fundedby the usual Republican donorsBig Pharma, bankers, insurance companies andhome-builders. Wisconsinites may not know much about Johnson, but theestablishment is willing to make a bet on him.
